A lot has changed since my first round of predictions for the Academy Awards 2018 nominees for Best Actor. While I can say none of my previous top contenders is out of the Oscar race, there are some considerable changes. For example, Andrew Garfield Oscar chances for Breathe got extremely slim, since most people overlooked the whole movie and went crazy for Jake Gyllenhaal (who stars the disability drama Stronger). And then we have the duo Steve Carell & Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying), with Carell assuming the "leading role" status and Cranston going supporting... And Tom Hanks seems to be losing territory since it was announced Steven Spielberg's The Post truly belongs to Meryl Streep.
So, let's have a look at my predictions:
So, I'm predicting 1 previous Academy Award winner (Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread), 2 Academy Award nominees (Jake Gyllenhaal for Stronger and Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour), a newcomer (Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name) and one of the less respected actors working today (Adam Sandler, The Meyerowitz Stories). I'm pretty confident about Oldman and Gyllenhaal, with Chalamet as a strong bet given the high-quality of his performance and the Oscar momentum around him. Day-Lewis is likely to happen, because of his "always-great-status" and PTAnderson factor. Sandler... Well, I loved the movie, everybody loves a good performance as a career-redemption story (Mickey Rourke, Sylvester Stallone, Angelina Jolie post-Girl, Interrupted or Sharon Stone) and I'm sure the indie awards and the Golden Globes will go for him... but it is a Netflix release and it seems to exist a certain resistance to this media giant. No matter what, in these matters Oscar voters pay more attention to the performance itself than the performer's career.
Now, let me present you the other big contenders I've under serious consideration for Best Actor race:
- #6: Steve Carell for Last Flag Flying - He delivers a soulful performance in Richard Linklater's latest drama. The movie didn't get universal acclaim: reviews were good but not great and there were some negative ones, but Carell's performance got wide praise. A used-to-be-comedic-actor in a more dramatic tone is always welcome and AMPAS loves this kind of turns (Carell's turn in Foxcatcher, for example)... Plus, he plays a war veteran and Oscar voters tend to love to pay tribute to them.
- #7: Joaquin Phoenix for You Were Never Really Here - Called this decade's Taxi Driver, Phoenix's acting turn in Lynne Ramsay's You Were Never Really Here met universal acclaim in Cannes and he took home the film festival's Best Performance by a Male Actor prize home. Ramsay's movies offer meaty roles to her actors, but none got an Oscar nod for them. Will Phoenix (who has 3 noms under his belt and a couple of snubs) be the first?
- #8: Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out - The male lead of one of the biggest box-office successes of the year (and one of the most well-reviewed ones too). Kaluuya's performance goes from subtle to paranoid to physical brutality in a star-making acting turn. He's quite charismatic and Hollywood might have just found a new black leading male to take on Denzel Washington's legacy. Will the AMPAS want to nominate him before he becomes a bigger name?
- #9: Nuno Lopes for Saint George - The star of the Portuguese official submission to Best Foreign Picture (São Jorge / Saint George), Nuno Lopes met widespread critical acclaim and took home a Best Actor prize of last year's edition of Venice Film Festival. It's a kind of movie that only works thanks to its lead's commanding performance and Lopes excels as a boxer-loving debt collector. This year's is a relatively weak year for Best Actor race, will the AMPAS think out of the box? If Oscar voters watch the movie, they'll be impressed by him for sure.
- #10: Sam Elliot for The Hero - A dark horse of this Oscar race. Elliot delivers a very charismatic performance as an iconic voice who meets some late recognition. It's a little acting gem, but the production is small and indie awards might look to other (more spectacular) performance. He will need the critics' awards support and a SAG nomination in order to pop-up. It's a beautiful one and sometimes the AMPAS goes for heartfelt performances from not-that-well-known actors.
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